Why did Man City’s winning probability rise to 50.6%? Opta “strongest to win by 1 goal”

February 27, 2024 0 Comments

With Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal continuing to compete for the lead in the English Premier League in the 2023-2024 season, Manchester City’s chances of winning the championship are over 50%.

On the 27th, “Opta Analytics,” a soccer statistics media outlet, announced the results of a new victory probability prediction reflecting last week’s Premier League game.

Last week’s league game was won by three teams side-by-side. Liverpool, the leader of 60 points, won 4-1 against Luton Town, and Manchester City, the second-ranked team with 59 points, won 1-0 against Bournemouth thanks to Phil Foden’s winning goal. Arsenal, with 58 points, defeated Newcastle United, 4-1.

While the three teams won side by side, Manchester City, which won 1-0, had the highest probability of Opta’s victory. It went up 3.9 percentage points from 46.7 percent to 50.6 percent last week.

“The champion’s characteristic is that he played hard and won a narrow victory,” Opta said, adding that “seven of Manchester City’s 18 wins this season were just one goal shy.” As a result, the probability of winning the game exceeded 50 percent. Opta explained, “Pep Guardiola became the first team to win the fourth consecutive Premier League title.”

On the other hand, Liverpool’s chances of winning, which led the league and even lifted the Carabao Cup trophy, have dropped significantly despite its huge victory over Luton Town. It dropped 4.3 percentage points from 40.4 percent to 36.1 percent. As a result, the gap with Manchester City widened by 14.5 percentage points. Opta said, “Liverpool were under pressure, with both rivals Manchester City and Arsenal winning. They probably know they have to win their games.” Arsenal were forecast to rise 0.4 percentage points to 13.3 percent.

Meanwhile, Aston Villa, ranked fourth in the league, are predicted to be 0.1% to 0%, and Tottenham, ranked fifth, is also predicted to be 0%.먹튀검증디비

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